09/09/13 : The Gap Resistance was taken down!

Date : 9th Sept 2013
KLCI : 1,747 (+23)

Our KLCI is really strong and resilient. It soared forcefully despite of uncertainty that shadowed the global market. The gap resistance 1,730 to 1,740 was exceeded eventually after a week. The role of resistance is reversed as support. It shows the ability of the bull to launch counter attack isn't weak. However, this soar is still classified as a technical rebound, rather than an uptrend. This is because
1. The average traded volume is relatively low compare to previous decline.
2. Still traded below the down trendline (Red colour) that serves as the back bone for this decline.

Critical Levels:
Resistance : 1,784 (Down trendline)
Support : 1,740 (Gap Support), 1735 (Up trendline)

Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic: Critical (but still bearish biased)
    Although it continues to move upwards, but SHORT signal will still happen IF it drops out from the overbought region. Don't worry, be patient.
2. Bollinger Band : (critical)
    No signal is triggered. The price is still failed to reach the upper band.

Conclusion:
1. Continued to stay out as no signal is triggered. Patience is very important in trading.
2. This is just a technical rebound. However, the recent strong surge indicated the bearish strength will not be as strong as expected earlier.
3. Be prepared for SHORT establishment when either Stochastic or Bollinger Band gives sell signal.

Confidence Level : 80%





   

07/09/13 : Still trapped within 1700 to 1730

Date : 6th Sept 2013 (Fri)
KLCI : 1,724 (+3)

Our KLCI had been moving tightly for the whole trading day as it did yesterday. Again, Gap resistance 1,730 is emphasized and still served as a very important control point.  It is believed that the KLCI is still trapped in 1,700 to 1,730 since the technical rebound before it declines again.
1. The average traded volume is low since the technical rebound.
2. Size (Range) of recent candles are tiny relatively.

Critical Levels: Remained the same with previous view.
Resistance  : 1730 - 1740 (Gap resistance)
Support        : 1700 (psychological level and long tail)
                        1655 (Long term up trendline)


Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic:(Critical but bearish biased)
     It had moved into the overbought territory for this technical rebound. The excellent SHORT signal will be formed later when it moves downwards and exits the overbought territory as labeled in the chart.

2. Bollinger Band: 
     No signal is generated. It's not so meaningful compared to stochastic at the moment. Although the band expands slightly and moving upwards, it's not a convincing bullish trend because it fails to reach the upper band.

Conclusion:
1. No signal is triggered today yet. Continue to stay out is the only option.
2. Be prepared for a short term SHORT, target will be around 1655.
3. Basically, the view is still remaining the same since the technical rebound from 1660.
4. The situation becomes more critical as it progresses nearer to trading signal soon.
Confidence level: 95%   

06/09/13W : Tight movement after a volatile week

Date     : 6th Sept 2013
KLCI   : 1,724 (-4)

Our KLCI had been moving tightly relatively since the technical rebound from 1,660. It's very near to the expected support as highlighted by the long term up trendline. This level is extremely important because it serves as the critical control to keep the long term uptrend since year 2011 intact. Despite of the volatile movement lately, it's still moving consistently in the up channel slowly from the long term view. The tight candle has shows the technical rebound is weakening and the chance to turn down turns higher.


Critical Levels:
Resistance : 1825
Support     : 1655


Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic: Little bullish biased.
     No signal is generated.
     The momentum of the decline is reduced.
2. MACD:
     Continued to move downwards.

04/09/13: Trapped in rectangle within 1700 to 1730

Date     : 4th Sept 2013 (Wed)
KLCI   : 1,717 (-8)

 

The KLCI was thrown down in the early morning. However, it was still able to fend above the support 1700 as it recoiled there gradually and consistently, leaving a relatively long lower tail candle. It's believed to be trapped in rectangle from 1700 to 1730. This projection is supported by these indications:

1. The little volume expansion (day to day) shows the buying at support is quite strong as well.
2. The alternate colour of the candles since it was resisted by Gap Resistance, 1730.

Critical Levels: Remained the same with previous view.
Resistance : 1730 - 1740 (Gap resistance)
Support     : 1700 (psychological level and long tail), 1655 (Long term up trendline)

Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic : Extremely Critical (But bearish biased)

• Any turning down (as highlighted by red arrow in the chart) will indicate a very convincing sell signal that we have been waiting patiently since the technical rebound. 
• It's believed that the sell signal is going to happen on tomorrow or by friday!

2. Bollinger Band: No signal.

Conclusion:
1. No signal is triggered today yet. Continue to stay out is the only option.
2. Be prepared for a short term SHORT, target will be around 1655.
3. Basically, the view is still remaining the same since the technical rebound from 1660.
4. The situation becomes more critical as it progresses nearer to trading signal soon.
Confidence level: 95%  

03/09/13: Still resisted by critical Gap Resistance 1730

Date     : 3rd Sept 2013 (Tue)
KLCI   : 1,724 (+7)

Our KLCI moves in a relatively tight range below the critical Gap Resistance 1730 as explained on yesterday. However, it is still failed to cross this level. The KLCI is expected to be moving in a horizontal range before it continues to decline again. The chance for the technical rebound to further is low. This projection is supported by these evidences:

1. Although there is expansion in volume (day to day basis) but it has been shrinking averagely since the technical rebound. The technical rebound is exhausting.
2. The Gap Resistance 1730 has been serving well recently. It is very meaningful and be expected to work.

Critical Levels: Remained the same with previous view.
Resistance : 1730 - 1740 (Gap resistance)
Support     : 1700 (psychological level), 1655 (Long term up trendline)

Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic : Critical (But bearish biased)

• It's getting clearer when the 80 is approached. 
• Any turning down (as highlighted by red arrow in the chart) will indicate a sell signal that we have been waiting patiently since the technical rebound.

2. Bollinger Band: No signal.

Conclusion:
1. No signal is triggered today. Continue to stay out.
2. Be prepared for a short term short, target will be around 1655.
3. Basically, the view remains the same.
4. The situation becomes more critical as it progresses nearer to trading signal soon.
Confidence level: 90%  

02/09/13: Still Resisted by the Gap, 1730

Date     : 2nd Sep 2013 (Mon)
KLCI   : 1718 (-10)

After 2 consecutive big rising days, the technical rebound seemed to be weakened when it was interrupted by black candle. The momentum is reduced sharply. The Gap Resistance, 1730  is expected to be strong and it seems to be able to halt the technical rebound. This estimation is supported by
1. The drastically shrinking volume. The ability to further rally is low.

2. Immediate retreat when R=1730 is approached. This resistance is very significant.
3. More ever, it has been working quite well for recent days.

Critical Levels:
Support : 1700 (psychological level), 1655 (Long term up trendline)
Resistance : 1730 - 1740 (Gap level)

Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic : Critical (But bearish biased)
    Any turning down will indicate a sell signal.
2. Bollinger Band: No signal.

Conclusion:
1. No signal is triggered today. Continue to stay out.
2. Be prepared for a short term short, target will be around 1655.
3. This technical rebound won't last long. It will be ended very soon (about a week).
Confidence level: 90%  

30/08/13 : Back to critical Gap Resistance 1730 to 1740

Date      : 30th Aug 2013 (Fri)
KLCI    :1,728 (+24)

Our KLCI continued to rally for the second consecutive day after it bounced near to the support at 1650. Another full and long white candle is formed and the earlier gap resistance is approached again. The volume traded is quite high. It shows
1. Technical rebound is still intact.

Critical Level:
1. Support : 1660
2. Resistance : 1730-1740

Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic : Still bearish but bearish biased.
     The existence of technical rebound is further validated.

2. Bollinger band : No signal

Conclusion:
1. This is just a technical rebound for a decline although it had gone up a lot.
2. Total SHORT liquidation is needed essentially.
3. Be prepared for a short term SHORT when bearish signal comes.
Confidence level : 90%
    

30/08/13W : Bounce from the Support 1650.

Date     : 30th Aug 2013
KLCI   : 1,728 (+7)

It had been a very volatile week with plunge in the early week and recovered steadily. A very broad star candle is formed in the weekly chart surprisingly. It bounced near to the trendline, S~1650 as drew on last week.It shows the support at low level is strong and held the market to turn into long term downtrend.

Critical Levels:
Support : 1655
Resistance: 1763, 1830

Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic: (Neutral)
     No signal is generated right now but be ready IF it turns up next week.
2. MACD : (Still bearish)
     The MACD and histogram continued to move downward.

Conclusion:
As the KLCI is able to hold above the up trendline, S~1650
1. Long term slow rally is still intact and not distorted.
2. This recent decline is just a mid term retracement.

29/08/13 : Gap Resistance 1700 was filled.

Date     : 29th Aug 2013 (Thu)
KLCI   : 1,704(+18)

After the KLCI had recovered from frenzy 1660 on yesterday consistently, it moves upwards further. A full long white candle is form eventually for the first time since the decline from 1801. The critical gap resistance 1690 to 1700 was filled completely and convincingly. However, the traded volume is low relatively.
1. This is just a technical rebound as it had dropped for nearly 150 points in 2 weeks.
2. Low 1660 serves as a temporary trough for this technical rebound.
3. The role of gap resistance is reversed. It serves as a support from 1690 to 1700.


Critical Levels:
Support Level : 1700, 1660 (as mentioned)
Resistance Level : 1730 (refer to earlier gap)


Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic : Critical (biased to bearish)
     It has exited the bearish territory eventually when it moved above 20.
     The undergoing technical rebound is validated.
2. Bollinger Band : No signal
     The decreasing band width shows the technical rebound has begun.

Conclusion:
1. This is just a technical rebound for a decline.
2. Partial SHORT liquidation is encouraged. However, LONG establishment is still discouraged.
3. Be prepared to SHORT when bearish signal comes

Confidence level : 75% as highlighted by the arrow in the chart.

28/08/13 : Critical Gap Resistance at 1690-1700

Date      : 27th Aug 2013 (Wed)
KLCI    : 1,686 (-15)






Our KLCI is whacked frenziedly again in the morning but it bounced from 1660 consistently, setting a broad star candle. 1660 is likely to serve as a temporary trough in a decline because
1. The first significant buying since the consistent decline from 1801.
2. Expanding volume
3. Support 1650 (as referred to weekly chart) is reached roughly.

Critical Levels:
Support Level : 1650(weekly), 1660(recent low)
Resistance Level : 1700(gap resistance)

Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic : Still bearish
    (a) Little tick up since it had been moving horizontally for about a week.
    (b) It implied the chance for a bounce is high
2. Bollinger Band : No signal

Conclusion:
The situation becomes critical because the chance for a technical rebound to happen here is increased. However, this rebound is not going to distort the mid term bearish view. LONG establishment is discouraged. Practically, SHORT shall be further held nimbly.

Confidence Level: 50%

27/08/13 : Still in Decline but not a good chance for SHORT addition

Date      : 27th Aug 2013 (Tue)
KLCI    : 1701 (-21)




The gap resistance, Rg=1730 was approached yesterday. Although it was exceed but it wasn't convincing because
1.  It didn't close above Rg and it was thrown down upon the closing, setting a star candle.
     It indicated the selling force at Rg is very strong. In fact, this is a weak bearish signal.
2.  The decreasing volume (day to day)
     It shows Rg is very strong and not easy to be exceeded.

As a result, it was whacked frenziedly today to the S=1700 as prepared. This is a critical control point as highlighted by the mid term down channel and a psychological level. Right now, this decline since h=1812 (Late July)is still classified as a retracement as our KLCI has been rallying since 2011 without a significant pullback rather than a crack down.
Support Level, S : 1700 (critical), 1650 (refer to weekly chart)
Resistance Level, R : 1730 (gap level)

Technical Indicators.
1. Stochastic : (Still bearish)
     Still in the bearish territory and it turned down further as the bear gained the strength further.
2. Bollinger Band:
     No signal is generated but still retained the earlier bearishness.

Conclusion:
1. The decline is still intact and no sign and trace for a bounce.
2. This is a not a good chance to add for SHORT position because it's danger.

Confidence Level: 70

23/08/13 : Gap Resistance at 1730

     The KLCI had been moving tightly for the whole trading day, setting a tiny and tight candle to churn the sharp decline below the huge gap, R=1,730~1,740. This gap is a control point to measure the strength of the bear. Right now, the bearish strength is still considered to be very strong. Once, there was a chance for a rebound for today because it seemed to bounce from the trendline and the fear of the global market was eased. However, it had failed. This phenomenon is interpreted our market sentiment is still very weak.

(A) Technical Indicator:
1. Stochastic: (Still bearish)
     Spending the 3rd day in the bearish territory (Oversold) as it was sent down since last week. The basic objective for this decline is achieved. However, there's any sign for a technical rebound unless it can leave the bearish territory later.
2.  Bollinger Band: (Still bearish)
     No signal is triggered today but it retains the bearishness induced by hbpc(A reliable bearish reversal signal) on last week and rti(A bearish reinforcement signal) on yesterday. As the band further expands, it implied the decline is still dominating, the tight movement today is yet to be considered as a technical rebound.

(B) Conclusion: 
      The short term decline since h=1801 is still intact. The support shall be the down trendline at 1,700 together with the psychological support level and the long term up trendline in weekly chart. Although the decline is very sharp, but it hasn't distorted the long term bullish view.

Confidence Level:  80

22/08/13(W) : The election gap is filled completely

Our KLCI had been retreating violently since the peak h=1801 was identified on last week through daily chart. The huge gap (1718-1724) formed right after the election was filled eventually after it had failed upon the attempt on last July. The gap filling implied the the strength of the long term rally isn't very strong. Probably, it's moving steadily in the up channel in the chart with a very weak bullish force. Right now, the selling isn't expected to distort the bullish long term view.

(A) Weekly Technical Signal:1. Stochastic :  (Neutral)
     Continued to move downwards for the 2nd consecutive week after the objective for previous bullish signal wBFS@1786 which was entering the overbought area 80 had been fulfilled. Right now, no signal is triggered yet.
2. MACD: (Bearish)
     The histogram turned negative after the weekly death cross on last week. The bearishness is reinforced and remained still intact. Although this weekly death cross isn't very reliable but it still achieves 60% accuracy.


(B) Conclusion:

     Although no technical signal is triggered on this weekly chart, but it still retained the bearishness atmosphere created on last week. Since it had declined sharply about 85 points in a single week, the chance for a technical rebound to happen is quite high before it further decline again.