09/09/13 : The Gap Resistance was taken down!

Date : 9th Sept 2013
KLCI : 1,747 (+23)

Our KLCI is really strong and resilient. It soared forcefully despite of uncertainty that shadowed the global market. The gap resistance 1,730 to 1,740 was exceeded eventually after a week. The role of resistance is reversed as support. It shows the ability of the bull to launch counter attack isn't weak. However, this soar is still classified as a technical rebound, rather than an uptrend. This is because
1. The average traded volume is relatively low compare to previous decline.
2. Still traded below the down trendline (Red colour) that serves as the back bone for this decline.

Critical Levels:
Resistance : 1,784 (Down trendline)
Support : 1,740 (Gap Support), 1735 (Up trendline)

Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic: Critical (but still bearish biased)
    Although it continues to move upwards, but SHORT signal will still happen IF it drops out from the overbought region. Don't worry, be patient.
2. Bollinger Band : (critical)
    No signal is triggered. The price is still failed to reach the upper band.

Conclusion:
1. Continued to stay out as no signal is triggered. Patience is very important in trading.
2. This is just a technical rebound. However, the recent strong surge indicated the bearish strength will not be as strong as expected earlier.
3. Be prepared for SHORT establishment when either Stochastic or Bollinger Band gives sell signal.

Confidence Level : 80%





   

07/09/13 : Still trapped within 1700 to 1730

Date : 6th Sept 2013 (Fri)
KLCI : 1,724 (+3)

Our KLCI had been moving tightly for the whole trading day as it did yesterday. Again, Gap resistance 1,730 is emphasized and still served as a very important control point.  It is believed that the KLCI is still trapped in 1,700 to 1,730 since the technical rebound before it declines again.
1. The average traded volume is low since the technical rebound.
2. Size (Range) of recent candles are tiny relatively.

Critical Levels: Remained the same with previous view.
Resistance  : 1730 - 1740 (Gap resistance)
Support        : 1700 (psychological level and long tail)
                        1655 (Long term up trendline)


Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic:(Critical but bearish biased)
     It had moved into the overbought territory for this technical rebound. The excellent SHORT signal will be formed later when it moves downwards and exits the overbought territory as labeled in the chart.

2. Bollinger Band: 
     No signal is generated. It's not so meaningful compared to stochastic at the moment. Although the band expands slightly and moving upwards, it's not a convincing bullish trend because it fails to reach the upper band.

Conclusion:
1. No signal is triggered today yet. Continue to stay out is the only option.
2. Be prepared for a short term SHORT, target will be around 1655.
3. Basically, the view is still remaining the same since the technical rebound from 1660.
4. The situation becomes more critical as it progresses nearer to trading signal soon.
Confidence level: 95%   

06/09/13W : Tight movement after a volatile week

Date     : 6th Sept 2013
KLCI   : 1,724 (-4)

Our KLCI had been moving tightly relatively since the technical rebound from 1,660. It's very near to the expected support as highlighted by the long term up trendline. This level is extremely important because it serves as the critical control to keep the long term uptrend since year 2011 intact. Despite of the volatile movement lately, it's still moving consistently in the up channel slowly from the long term view. The tight candle has shows the technical rebound is weakening and the chance to turn down turns higher.


Critical Levels:
Resistance : 1825
Support     : 1655


Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic: Little bullish biased.
     No signal is generated.
     The momentum of the decline is reduced.
2. MACD:
     Continued to move downwards.

04/09/13: Trapped in rectangle within 1700 to 1730

Date     : 4th Sept 2013 (Wed)
KLCI   : 1,717 (-8)

 

The KLCI was thrown down in the early morning. However, it was still able to fend above the support 1700 as it recoiled there gradually and consistently, leaving a relatively long lower tail candle. It's believed to be trapped in rectangle from 1700 to 1730. This projection is supported by these indications:

1. The little volume expansion (day to day) shows the buying at support is quite strong as well.
2. The alternate colour of the candles since it was resisted by Gap Resistance, 1730.

Critical Levels: Remained the same with previous view.
Resistance : 1730 - 1740 (Gap resistance)
Support     : 1700 (psychological level and long tail), 1655 (Long term up trendline)

Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic : Extremely Critical (But bearish biased)

• Any turning down (as highlighted by red arrow in the chart) will indicate a very convincing sell signal that we have been waiting patiently since the technical rebound. 
• It's believed that the sell signal is going to happen on tomorrow or by friday!

2. Bollinger Band: No signal.

Conclusion:
1. No signal is triggered today yet. Continue to stay out is the only option.
2. Be prepared for a short term SHORT, target will be around 1655.
3. Basically, the view is still remaining the same since the technical rebound from 1660.
4. The situation becomes more critical as it progresses nearer to trading signal soon.
Confidence level: 95%  

03/09/13: Still resisted by critical Gap Resistance 1730

Date     : 3rd Sept 2013 (Tue)
KLCI   : 1,724 (+7)

Our KLCI moves in a relatively tight range below the critical Gap Resistance 1730 as explained on yesterday. However, it is still failed to cross this level. The KLCI is expected to be moving in a horizontal range before it continues to decline again. The chance for the technical rebound to further is low. This projection is supported by these evidences:

1. Although there is expansion in volume (day to day basis) but it has been shrinking averagely since the technical rebound. The technical rebound is exhausting.
2. The Gap Resistance 1730 has been serving well recently. It is very meaningful and be expected to work.

Critical Levels: Remained the same with previous view.
Resistance : 1730 - 1740 (Gap resistance)
Support     : 1700 (psychological level), 1655 (Long term up trendline)

Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic : Critical (But bearish biased)

• It's getting clearer when the 80 is approached. 
• Any turning down (as highlighted by red arrow in the chart) will indicate a sell signal that we have been waiting patiently since the technical rebound.

2. Bollinger Band: No signal.

Conclusion:
1. No signal is triggered today. Continue to stay out.
2. Be prepared for a short term short, target will be around 1655.
3. Basically, the view remains the same.
4. The situation becomes more critical as it progresses nearer to trading signal soon.
Confidence level: 90%  

02/09/13: Still Resisted by the Gap, 1730

Date     : 2nd Sep 2013 (Mon)
KLCI   : 1718 (-10)

After 2 consecutive big rising days, the technical rebound seemed to be weakened when it was interrupted by black candle. The momentum is reduced sharply. The Gap Resistance, 1730  is expected to be strong and it seems to be able to halt the technical rebound. This estimation is supported by
1. The drastically shrinking volume. The ability to further rally is low.

2. Immediate retreat when R=1730 is approached. This resistance is very significant.
3. More ever, it has been working quite well for recent days.

Critical Levels:
Support : 1700 (psychological level), 1655 (Long term up trendline)
Resistance : 1730 - 1740 (Gap level)

Technical Indicators:
1. Stochastic : Critical (But bearish biased)
    Any turning down will indicate a sell signal.
2. Bollinger Band: No signal.

Conclusion:
1. No signal is triggered today. Continue to stay out.
2. Be prepared for a short term short, target will be around 1655.
3. This technical rebound won't last long. It will be ended very soon (about a week).
Confidence level: 90%